Patrick Mahomes' Earning Structure

Amidst continued contract turmoil between Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, and looming extensions for Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, & Jalen Hurts, let’s readdress Patrick Mahomes’ 10 year, $450 million deal in Kansas City.

Mahomes is entering Year 4 of his 12 year, $480M total value contract with the Chiefs, set to earn $40.45M for the 2023 season. In total, the deal contains 9 years, $414.55M remaining to be earned. But just how much of that will Mahomes actually earn?

Hopefully this helps shed a little light…

If he is released during the 2023 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $134.3M of dead cap, $117.3M of which is cash. ($183M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2024 league year (Age 29)
The Chiefs would be left with $97.6M of dead cap, $77.4M of which is cash. ($183M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2024 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $100M of dead cap, $79.9M of which is cash. ($186M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2025 league year (Age 30)
The Chiefs would be left with $53.5M of dead cap, $41.95M of which is cash. ($186M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2025 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $90M of dead cap, $80.85M of which is cash. ($225M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2026 league year (Age 31)
The Chiefs would be left with $43.7M of dead cap, $38.9M of which is cash. ($225M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2026 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $96.1M of dead cap, $91.35M of which is cash. ($277M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2027 league year (Age 32)
The Chiefs would be left with $51.8M of dead cap, $49.4M of which is cash. ($277M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2027 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $106.8M of dead cap, $104.4M of which is cash. ($332M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2028 league year (Age 33)
The Chiefs would be left with $44.45M of dead cap, $44.45M of which is cash. ($332M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2028 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $89.4M of dead cap, $89.4M of which is cash. ($377M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2029 league year (Age 34)
The Chiefs would be left with $44.95M of dead cap, $44.95M of which is cash. ($377M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2029 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $95.4M of dead cap, $95.4M of which is cash. ($429M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2030 league year (Age 35)
The Chiefs would be left with $50.4M of dead cap, $50.4M of which is cash. ($429M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2030 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $64.35M of dead cap, $64.35M of which is cash. ($441M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2031 league year (Age 36)
The Chiefs would be left with $13.9M of dead cap, $13.9M of which is cash. ($441M / $480M earned)

Notable Notes

It’s crucial to understand that the dead cap figures noted above are based on the contract as it stands today. Every future restructure/cap conversion will increase those figures exponentially.

With that said, the first real considerable “out” in this deal comes before the 2026 league year. If the contract remains as is (it won’t), Kansas City will be left with a $43.7M dead cap hit ($39M of which will be straight cash to Mahomes). If we assume a $255M league salary cap for 2026 (low estimate), this dead hit represents just over 17% of that figure. For reference, Aaron Rodgers’ traded dead cap hit will represent almost 18% of the 2023 league cap.

There’s no point in time where Patrick Mahomes can be released without the Chiefs having to fork over a pile of future cash.

If we lop off the 2031 season ($38.5M of that cash doesn’t vest until March 2031), Mahomes is staring down 8 years, $376M from 2023-2030, an average of exactly $47M per year. Even if the salary cap rises to $300M during this span, Mahomes adjusted AAV will still live north of 15% of that figure.

Is this a fully guaranteed contract? No. Is this a creative way to make sure a star QB makes a ton of money without having to pump all $500M into escrow out of the gate? Yes. Are there a few difficult but doable outs in the middle of this deal should the Chiefs need to bail? Yes. Will salary conversions make those outs more difficult? Yes.

Will Mahomes stay in this contract through 2030? I wouldn’t say it’s likely. The QB market isn’t going to plummet, so the numbers coming in around him are going to be tantalizing in a few seasons. The 2027 league year seems a prudent line of demarcation for both sides here. 1) Mahomes will be set to earn just under $60M cash that season. 2) $104.4M of future salary becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2027. Taking that cash and converting it into a newly structured contract that better aligns with the current QB market can be beneficial for both sides.